About

Hi, I'm Nat! I am currently a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Political Science at Columbia University, focusing on elite behavior in the American criminal-legal system. My dissertation project examines the human logic behind carceral outcomes: how police officers factor prosecutorial policy into arrest decisions, whether ever-greater volumes of digital evidence influence the speed and quality of prosecution, and the influence of selection and appointment systems on the sentencing decisions of judges. I care a lot about doing careful, causally-identified observational work that speaks to the everyday exercise of state power.

Before Columbia, I studied Political Science at Reed College and worked on political campaigns in Oregon and California. Outside of working hours, I can often be found at one of New York's many arthouse movie theaters or vegan restaurants.

Working Papers

Job Market Paper
"Why Enforce? Policing Under Non-Prosecution Policies"
Solo-authored

To what extent does criminal punishment incentivize police officers to make low-level arrests? This paper examines whether non-prosecution (categorical declination) policies alter discretionary misdemeanor policing by changing the incentives facing patrol officers. Using a staggered adoption design with synthetic controls, I find officers continue to make arrests despite a total lack of prosecution. This suggests that misdemeanor arrests provide utility to police officers outside of the deterrent effect of punishment.

Draft
"Do Retention Elections Create Cycles in Criminal Sentencing? An Out-of-Sample Replication"
with Donald P. Green

Judicial retention elections are notoriously low-salience, uncompetitive events where incumbents virtually never lose. However, some articles have found that criminal court judges become significantly more punitive as these safe elections approach. Using newly available data spanning several election cycles, we conduct an out-of-sample replication of the most widely cited article in this literature (Huber and Gordon 2004) and find no evidence of election cycle effects.

Curriculum Vitae

Download full CV (PDF)

Education
Columbia University
Ph.D. Political Science (Expected Summer 2027)
M.Phil. Political Science (2026)
M.A. Political Science (2024)
Reed College
B.A. Political Science (2020)
Book Chapters

Christian Breunig and Chris Koski with Nat Rubin. "How Interests and Executives Set Public Policy in Four States." In: Means, Motives and Opportunities: How Executives and Interest Groups Set Public Policy. Cambridge University Press, 2024.

Works in Progress
Dissertation: Essays in Carceral State Politics
  • "Why Enforce? Police Discretion Under Non-Prosecution Policies"
  • "The Digital Haystack: Is More Evidence Better?"
  • "Election Cycles in Criminal Sentencing"

"Do Retention Elections Create Cycles in Criminal Sentencing? An Out-of-Sample Replication" with Donald P. Green.

Teaching
  • Spring 2026: "American Urban Politics," TA for Carlos Vargas-Ramos
  • Fall 2025: "Voting and Political Behavior," TA for Yamil Velez
  • Spring 2025: "Judicial Politics," TA for Jeff Lax
  • Fall 2024: "Voting and American Politics," TA for Robert Erikson
  • Spring 2024: "Race and the Carceral State," TA for Andrew McCall
  • Fall 2023: "Data Science for Political Analytics," TA for Greg Wawro
Grants
  • Graduate Student Research Grant, Columbia University Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy
Conferences & Presentations
  • 2026: American Political Science Association Conference (Boston); Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference (University of Chicago); Justice and Injustice Conference (Columbia University); Political Science Graduate Student Seminar (Columbia University)
  • 2025: Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference (University of Chicago); American Politics Graduate Student Workshop (Columbia University)
  • 2024: American Political Science Association Annual Conference (Philadelphia); Mini-APSA (Columbia University)
  • 2023: American Politics Graduate Student Workshop (Columbia University)