AboutHi, I'm Nat! I am currently a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Political Science at Columbia University, focusing on elite behavior in the American criminal-legal system. My dissertation project examines the human logic behind carceral outcomes: how police officers factor prosecutorial policy into arrest decisions, whether ever-greater volumes of digital evidence influence the speed and quality of prosecution, and the influence of selection and appointment systems on the sentencing decisions of judges. I care a lot about doing careful, causally-identified observational work that speaks to the everyday exercise of state power. Before Columbia, I studied Political Science at Reed College and worked on political campaigns in Oregon and California. Outside of working hours, I can often be found at one of New York's many arthouse movie theaters or vegan restaurants. Working PapersJob Market Paper
"Why Enforce? Policing Under Non-Prosecution Policies"
Solo-authored
To what extent does criminal punishment incentivize police officers to make low-level arrests? This paper examines whether non-prosecution (categorical declination) policies alter discretionary misdemeanor policing by changing the incentives facing patrol officers. Using a staggered adoption design with synthetic controls, I find officers continue to make arrests despite a total lack of prosecution. This suggests that misdemeanor arrests provide utility to police officers outside of the deterrent effect of punishment. Draft
"Do Retention Elections Create Cycles in Criminal Sentencing? An Out-of-Sample Replication"
with Donald P. Green
Judicial retention elections are notoriously low-salience, uncompetitive events where incumbents virtually never lose. However, some articles have found that criminal court judges become significantly more punitive as these safe elections approach. Using newly available data spanning several election cycles, we conduct an out-of-sample replication of the most widely cited article in this literature (Huber and Gordon 2004) and find no evidence of election cycle effects. Curriculum VitaeEducation
Book Chapters
Christian Breunig and Chris Koski with Nat Rubin. "How Interests and Executives Set Public Policy in Four States." In: Means, Motives and Opportunities: How Executives and Interest Groups Set Public Policy. Cambridge University Press, 2024. Works in Progress
Dissertation: Essays in Carceral State Politics
"Do Retention Elections Create Cycles in Criminal Sentencing? An Out-of-Sample Replication" with Donald P. Green. Teaching
Grants
Conferences & Presentations
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